GIS Analysis
What is GIS?
GIS stands for Geographic Information Systems and it's basically an
enormous collection of electronic demographic data associated with maps.
Information represented by "GIS" includes:
- Census data collected very specifically by geographic areas or tracts
paints a specific picture about individual neighborhoods. Economic
status and children's ages tell us about the kind of neighborhood in
a general way, while information like the age of adults tells us
about the likelihood that households will have more children or perhaps
no children at all in the course of the next several years.
- Municipal zoning records not only give us the obvious information
about what kinds of development can happen in which areas, but also tell
us about the types of units in residential areas. Households in multi-unit
apartment buildings tend to average a different number of children per
household than those in developments of single-family homes on more
than ½ an acre. These averages are important when looking at the
longer-term picture: How many children might possibly be in the district
if the area were to be completely developed over time?
- Utility infrastructure data added to the underlying neighborhood and
zoning data gives us a better picture of the possibilities for future
development. Developments form from more saturated areas outward, generally
clustered around available good water sources, access to public sanitation
and transportation networks.
- Student data is added to this collection from district records
and other sources. We can use this model to show every existing child
in the district and which schools they currently attend. This also refines
our picture of the region specifically so we can take a more educated guess
about how many children neighborhoods will maintain and how that number
might change with different scenarios.
- GIS modeling is the process of taking all of this data and developing
a set of hypothetical futures based on factors such as likely development
over time, the effects of new infrastructure or availability of new jobs
and housing created by specific "what if" circumstances. Our "hypothetical
future" map will project individuals using assumptions about growth, household
types and what we know about the region. We can envision how the different
future scenarios will affect school capacity requirements, attendance
boundaries, potential travel-time impact of re-allocations, the effects of
grade re-structuring and other facility development options that the district
may wish to consider.
What will a GIS study tell me that a facilities study alone won't?
Typically, a GIS study will provide a great deal of in-depth information
about an area. It is as much of an art as a scientific process involving
prediction of future variables, which is always a risky endeavor. The accuracy
of the predictions will only be as good as the combination of the architect's
foresight and the openness of communication and level of optimism or pessimism
of municipal officials, developers and the school administration.
Our goal as your architect will be focused on assisting your district to
develop a long-term master plan. With the GIS component of a study, we hope
to help you answer several key questions in addition to basic study information:
- What is the potential student growth for this area? How will the overall
economic status of the residents change? Do current enrollments reflect
PDE's predictions and how will they differ? What are the real foreseeable
enrollment projections?
- What kind of additional space does the district need if there is moderate
student growth? What about significant student growth? What adjustments
can be made if enrollment declines after a period of growth? Can the
district solve problems through grade re-structuring?
- What is the enrollment impact on special programs? Based on projected
growth, what kind of space will be required for special needs children
and where should services be located? How will changes to ½ day or full
day kindergarten be affected in future scenarios? Will support areas such
as sports fields be sufficient to support student growth?
- Where will the primary growth be? What areas will be likely to have the
majority of the student population? How do attendance boundaries shift
if a school is closed or a new facility is built on one of a number of
different sites?
While sometimes the answers to these questions are surprising, often they
confirm what district administrators may have suspected. In either case,
our best quantitative, objective projection will give the statistical backup
for the difficult decisions that administrators face and provide visually
descriptive materials to illustrate complicated information when communicating
with the community about the future plans of the district.
What a lot of data. So how big is it?
As a firm, we generally don't like to equate quantity with quality. However,
yes, it is a very large document. Even a study without the complete GIS component
is quite large. Depending on the number of schools being evaluated, we present
our initial draft of phase one of the study in a 2 to 3 inch 3-ring binder.
We issue remaining phases, revisions and new information in 3-ring punched
format to be added to the original binder so that the study remains a "living
document". As new student and enrollment data comes in throughout the study
process, we include that information and revise many of the charts and projections.
What do we get for our investment?
The study process has several milestones where the district receives a great
deal of paper. At the end of the process, the district will have many copies of
a monumental, bound document as well as several very large display boards to
represent most of the mapping data. The content includes the information listed
below. Underlined items are specific to the GIS study components discussed above.
- Phase I
- Analysis of district-wide conditions
- basic demographics component based on available information from
district and Department of Education findings
- overall educational planning assessment
- curriculum development assessment and program comparison
- Demographic analysis of district (Specific to GIS Inclusive Study)
- discussion and compilation with all involved municipalities,
government agencies and economic development organizations to map
current and future development potential for residential
and commercial growth
- analysis of student population growth over previous years
- Student demographics and locations (Specific to GIS Inclusive Study)
- detailed current picture of students by age and actual street
address of each student (by age and school) mapped against
district facilities
- developments and neighborhoods assessed by general adult age
populations and potential for future student residency
- Analysis of each district facility including:
- PlanCon evaluation of capacities
- architectural condition and brief code analysis
- site conditions and issues
- mechanical and engineering conditions and recommendations
- educational program and curriculum appropriateness
- Phase II
- Multiple options for solutions including:
- schematic designs for building renovations or construction
- PlanCon evaluation for each building as modified under each option
- cost estimates for development
- rough long-term life cycle cost comparison
- Future growth projection (Specific to GIS Inclusive Study)
- multiple scenarios of projected student residency within the
district including likely development as well as maximum
possible growth buildout limited by zoning and available land
- detailed mapping of potential students by age and predicted
street address of each student mapped against current and
potential district facilities
- Phase III
- Detailed option development (option selected by district)
- all materials required to meet PlanCon Part A requirements
- detailed long-term life cycle cost projection
How will so much information make sense after the study is complete?
McKissick Associates gives you much more than just paper. We present our
study findings at each phase in an open discussion forum. We will present all
or part of the study data as often as required for the district to have a complete
understanding of the information collected to date. We will also present our
study findings in public open meetings so that taxpayers will have the opportunity
to ask questions about the process as well as the results. It's important for
the district and community to have these discussions periodically so that ideas
and information coming from these open forums can be included in any further
study projections.
We consider a study to be a consensus building process where the right solution
is reached by the administration, the community and the design team arriving at
a conclusion together at the end of a journey. We can help guide you and your
community along the road and get you safely and confidently to your goals.
The Bottom Line
We believe that the success of any projects for your district stemming from
this study will be the direct result of comprehensive initial planning. Setting
goals and priorities for a district-wide strategy of development will help focus
the creative process between the design team and the district staff most effectively.